Practical Basketball Dribble Move Probability Calculator: How to Read It

Enter your values to compare scenarios; the calculation runs only in this browser.

Why a dribble-move probability calculator?

Practical Basketball’s isolation scoring depends on the move you pick against the defender profile. The Dribble Move Probability Calculator is a deterministic scorer you can run in your browser. It does not invent data: every probability is computed from the move’s creator advantage, the skill differential, the contest geometry, and a recommended follow-up.

Inputs

• move — one of crossover, behind-back, hesi, hesi_pull, tween, sham_god, misdirection, half_spin, full_spin.
• Attacker ratings — ball_handle, speed_with_ball, three_pt_rating (0-99).
• Defender ratings — perimeter defense, lateral speed, acceleration (0-99); height (60-90 in); distance (0-5 m).
• Modifiers — sprint_active, two_defenders, is_mobile, stamina_low, hesi_then_jump_shot.

Outputs

• P_beat in [0.03, 0.85] — you create separation.
• P_even in [0.02, 0.40] — you trade space.
• P_recov in [0.05, 0.80] — the defender recovers.
• P_strip in [0.02, 0.35] — you lose the ball.
• best_follow_up — drive_layup / stepback_jumper / kick_pass / hesitate.

Probabilities sum to 1.00 within 1% tolerance.

Edge cases

• Ball-handle and speed-with-ball both 0 → delta = -1; P_beat ≤ 0.10; suggest “pass first”.
• Defender already on top (defender_distance_m < 0.5) → +0.10 to P_strip, +0.05 to P_recov, -0.15 to P_beat.
• Sprint active but speed_with_ball < 40 → sprint bonus flips to penalty.
• Mobile flick noise → multiply all probabilities by 0.95.
• Two defenders → defender_per_def *= 1.25 (cap 99).
• Hesi followed by jump shot → +0.06 to P_beat if 3PT ≥ 70.
• Lockdown defender (PER_DEF ≥ 90 + lateral speed ≥ 80) → cap P_beat at 0.65.